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Statistics Department - UFMG/Brazil

Change in the frequency of prediction updates

In the last months, our team has followed the trends of multiple waves in several of the countries analyzed, as well as the presence of weekly seasonality in the states of Brazil. These characteristics led to the implementation of different extensions of our model for each state and country on our list, which are actually the topics of the last posts here on this blog.

However, with the natural evolution of the complexity of the implemented models, many of these models have required more time to finish the analyzes. Recall that we currently provide daily predictions for a list of 46 countries, in addition to Brazil and its 27 states, with each region having two series (confirmed cases and deaths) adjusted separately. Even with all our efforts to optimize and parallelize the codes, it has not been uncommon to find several of these models needing more than 24 hours to finish.

With that, we inform that as of today, our forecasts will be updated only twice a week, on Mondays and Thursdays.